Hockey Rules

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Thursday, April 22, 2010

Devils Playoff Upset or NOT?

Vol. I, No. 43

The Devils are bedeviled.  They have made the playoffs three years in a row, only to be eliminated in the first round each time. 

In 2008, the Rangers won in 5 games (and then lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the semifinals, also in 5 games).  In 2009, it was a heartbreaking loss against the Carolina Hurricanes in the last two minutes of a Game 7. 

This year, the Flyers dominated the Devils and won with an assertive 5th game shutout pitched by Philly's 3rd goalie, Brian Boucher. The Devils were really never competitive during the series.  As Coach Jacques Lemaire said, the team was playing two out of three periods.

Going into the playoffs as the #2 seed in the East, the Devs faced the #7 seed, a perennial rival in the Atlantic Division.  The Devils have an intense competition with the team across the Hudson River that DID NOT make the playoffs. But the team across the Delaware River DID make the playoffs and Philadelphia had the Devils' number this year.

In regular season play, the Flyers took 5 out of 6 games, outscoring NJ by 20 to 13 goals.  In the playoffs, Philly took the series 4 games to 1, outscoring the Devs 15 to 8.  That's a total of 9 out of 11 games won by the Broad Street gang, 35 to 21 goals.  This was no upset.

And tonight came the fifth playoff game. Philly capped the series, controlled from the start and defeated the Devs 3 - 0, even without the contributions of two key players out with injuries.  Simon Gagner and the team's leading scorer, Jeff Carter, both took injuries in Game 4. Gagne is out for three weeks, and Carter's season has come to an end.

What's the difference between these teams? Stan "The Hockey Maven" Fischler said that the Flyer's defense was better, their penalty kill was better, their power play was better and their offense was better. Did he leave anything out?  I think the answer boils down to maintaining desire and intensity over a very long season.  This year consisted of a regular season, the Olympics and now, the playoffs.

Some teams play well for season records.  The Devils seem to be in that category.  Over the first part of the season, they were the dominant team in the entire NHL. But in the last half, their record was not the same. To wind up in second place in the east, New Jersey won enough games to ride that first half performance.  After the Olympics, the Devils went 11 and 10.  That kind of performance does not win playoff games. Why the fall-off?  There are, IMHO, three reasons.

(1) Four key Devils offensive players spent their energies in Vancouver. Langenbrunner, Parise, Elias and Kovalchuk all played hard, extra games. There is evidence over the past several Olympics that teams which send a lot of players to the international games wind up suffering in the NHL postseason.  Those two weeks, and dozens of playoff intensity games, take their toll.

(2) The addition of Ilya Kovalchuk just before the Olympics did not gel. The Devils kept juggling lines.  The chemistry did not have time to set up.  One player cannot make a team succeed.  Ilya is a class act, with talent that is astounding. But he needs linemates that can work with him and vice versa. Successful Cup contenders have always had pairs - Gretzky and Messier - Lemieux and Jagr - and in New Jersey, Richer and Lemieux (Claude, not Mario). Who was Ilya's natural partner in New Jersey? Your guess is as good as mine.

(3) The netminder, Marty Brodeur, just has not been sharp over the entire season.  He plays more games, and wins more of them, than any other goaltender.  But does that allow him to maintain intensity into the playoffs? The plain truth is that MB was pulled by Team Canada during the Olympics. Bobby Loo from Vancouver took over, and the world knows the result.

So one issue the Devils organization must confront is their franchise player. Marty needs to be platooned and supported by a serious backup goaltender. Scott Clemmenson filled that role last season with spectacular results, during Brodeur's injury break. This year, Yann Danis played in 12 games, with a 3 - 2 won/lost record.  He is ranked 66 out of 83 NHL goalies in the regular season. Is Danis the replacement to be groomed for the time when Marty retires? This is the area where the Devils need to re-tool.  Will they?  Can Brodeur accept a shared position? The post season will be the time for tough decisions.

The Devils - Flyers series boiled down to outstanding goaltending by Brian Boucher, a veteran without consistent NHL experience.  But Boucher has history. In 1999-2000, he was the league's leading goalie with a 1.91 GAA average. He matched the Devils that year, going down to a Game 7 defeat against the  ultimate 2000 Stanley Cup champions. Boucher had the goods, and he came up big in this series.

The Flyers went into the playoffs having owned the Devils during the regular season.  New Jersey's performance was affected by the Olympics. Brian Boucher had something to prove. This was no upset.

New Jersey's management now will do some deep thinking about the structure of next year's roster.  A bunch of free agents will probably not be back. Ilya Kovalchuk will probably move on. The Russian Continental League wants him desperately. So do a host of other NHL franchises. Atlanta offered him over $100M to stay. The only question is whether he wants to stay in North America for another run at a Stanley Cup - and if so, with which team?

As for the Flyers, they will probably face the Washington Capitals in the next series, unless Montreal pulls a rabbit out of the hat.  Look for a repeat of the Rangers' performance in 2008. You heard it here.

Hockey Rules.

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